This is something I’ve wanted to do for quite some time. I wrote a book – and I am very (very!) proud to present it. Have a look:
You can actually buy the book @24,90€ - just click the link at the bottom of this page
I’ll simply post an overview of what’s inside:
Part I: Oil price
Basic economics – demand, supply and prices
Boom and bust – the value chain of crude oil production
The magic oil price formula
The floor price for oil
How OPEC tries to control the market – and fails
Why speculators don’t matter at all
Part II: Fundamental analysis – this time it’s different
Demand – China and the emerging markets
Peak Oil – theory
Reserves – sources and abbreviations
The usefulness of military intelligence methodology
Reserves and Peak Oil
Supply – the free world outside the OPEC cartel
OPEC’s Reserves – Liar’s Poker in the desert
OPEC’s production – what we can expect
Saudi Arabia – fading production reserves
Iraq – the 12 mb/day Fata Morgana
Why 2012 may become another 2008
The upside risk – Nigeria, Venezuela, Iran and Sudan
Part III: How to profit
How hedge funds produce alpha
Equities – don’t buy them
The market for oil futures
Trading risks
Information distraction
About analysts, economists and commodity experts
Speculators again
Be prepared for the unexpected to happen
Keep your faith
Fundamental risks – China, oil shale and ethanol
How to do it
Moral and commodity speculation
Profitability
There is a limit to everything
Part IV: Latest developments – an update
WTI and Brent – still one oil world?
OPEC’s new oil reserves war
The final frontier – Big Oil at its limit
Al-Naimi – the man who moves the market
Outlook: $200 per barrel – why not?
Some of the contents have been available online so I’ve simply linked to them. If you’re interested in the full story, feel free to order your own copy:
